Sound Predictions Model Validation Study
Sound Predictions Model Validation StudyC. J. Beegle-Krause, Research 4D
Scope of Work:
The proposed analysis of the observational data and model predictions is based on trajectory predictive ability. The intent is to identify areas of higher and lower predictive skill for the field conditions during the experiment and provide insight and recommendations for future improvements.
The work will examine the effect of observational data assimilation in potential oil spill simulations by comparing observed and simulated drifter trajectories using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. Observed circulation fields (winds and currents), and two different types of the PWS circulation fields (nowcast and forecast) will be examined in order to isolate the effects of data assimilation without re-running the circulation models. The hindcast fields will have assimilated all available observations, while the forecast fields will not have the benefit of the observational program. Simulated trajectories will be compared with observed drifter trajectories during Sound Predictions, and the other observational data will be used to construct hypotheses for any trajectory differences. If necessary, a diagnostic circulation model will be constructed in GNOME to test these hypotheses.