Survival Potential of Arctic Cod

Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) is a keystone species in the Arctic that is vulnerable to impacts from oil spills.
The early life stages of this species are especially sensitive to hydrocarbon exposure because of their high
buoyancy and long development times. Here we propose to examine the effects of an oil spill in the Alaskan
Arctic on Arctic cod under current and future climate scenarios.
This study will spatially model the winter survival potential of juvenile Arctic cod following scenarios of
embryonic exposure to oil in the spring e.g., oil spill on spawning grounds. Models will integrate the latest
growth/lipid impact results from oil exposure 1 (OSRI-funded exposure, Incardona et al. in prep) with
experimentally determined temperature-dependent over-winter lipid loss rates for age-0 Arctic cod (Copeman et
al. in review), and downscaled CMIP6 high-resolution temperature models of the Alaskan Arctic region.
Models will be constructed using three scenarios Societal Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and
SSP5-8.5 for surface and bottom depths for the period 1993-2100 2.